Wednesday, 16 August 2023 17:21

Equivalencias matemáticas ofrecen una nueva vía para alcanzar la inmunidad de grupo ante futuras epidemias

La inmunidad de grupo se consigue cuando suficientes personas son inmunes a un virus, tras superar una infección o recibir una vacuna. La inmunidad de grupo se consigue cuando suficientes personas son inmunes a un virus, tras superar una infección o recibir una vacuna. iStock
  • El estudio del CSIC señala que la inmunidad atenuante, más sencilla de conseguir, puede lograr el mismo efecto que la inmunidad esterilizante
  • Los resultados obtenidos consideran la protección de infecciones pasadas ante patógenos futuros, incluso cuando se trata de cepas distintas

Un trabajo realizado por los investigadores Iker Atienza y Luís F. Seoane encuentra una equivalencia matemática entre modelos de inmunidad esterilizante (cuando el virus no puede reinfectar, ni siquiera de forma leve) e inmunidad atenuante (que no bloquea la infección, sino que solo la hace menos probable o suaviza los síntomas) ante epidemias. Según los científicos, estas equivalencias matemáticas revelan que la inmunidad atenuante, más sencilla de conseguir, es “un arma valiosa para alcanzar la inmunidad de grupo”. El estudio se publica en la revista Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.

Los modelos matemáticos han guiado la comprensión sobre las epidemias, sobre todo en la evolución de la reciente pandemia de SARS-CoV-2. Estos modelos explican el fenómeno de la inmunidad de grupo: cuando suficientes personas son inmunes a un virus (bien tras superar una infección o después de recibir una vacuna), la probabilidad de que el patógeno encuentre nuevos huéspedes se aproxima a cero. De esta forma, incluso las personas sin vacunar están protegidas.

“Los modelos clásicos sugieren que, para alcanzar esta protección grupal, la inmunidad individual debe ser esterilizante. Sin embargo, el nuevo modelo matemático altera estas previsiones, indicando de forma clara cómo la inmunidad atenuante puede alcanzar el mismo efecto que la esterilizante”, señala Luís F. Seoane, investigador del CSIC en el Centro Nacional de Biotecnología (CNB-CSIC) y autor del trabajo.

Los resultados obtenidos consideran la inmunidad cruzada, es decir, la protección de infecciones pasadas ante patógenos futuros, incluso cuando se trata de cepas distintas, y a muy largo plazo, cuando en una población se acumulan sucesivas infecciones por cepas cada vez más distantes entre sí. Esto ha sucedido con el SARS-CoV-2 durante la pandemia y con el virus de la gripe a lo largo de las últimas décadas. Los nuevos modelos sugieren que el efecto de memoria inmunológica altera las propiedades que puede tener cada nuevo brote. Este efecto también hace que aparezca, de forma espontánea, una diferencia cualitativa entre procesos frecuentes con una incidencia baja y otros muy escasos pero capaces de afectar a la población entera. Es decir, como apunta señala Iker Atienza-Diez, científico del CSIC en el CNB-CSIC y también autor del estudio, “la modelización matemática de la inmunidad cruzada sugiere la emergencia de procesos similares a epidemias junto a otros más parecidos a pandemias. Esta separación natural de escalas no ocurría en modelos que no consideraban la memoria inmunológica”.

Más información

Iker Atienza-Diez, Luís F. Seoane. Long- and short-term effects of cross-immunity in epidemic dynamics. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113800

Noticia elaborada por el Dpto de Comunicación del CSIC

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